Key risks

Nornickel’s risks are all inherent to its strategic and operational development and business continuity goals. Key risks have a varying degree of effect on Nornickel’s objectives.

Price risk

Potential decrease in sales revenues due to lower prices for Nornickel metals is subject to actual or potential changes in demand and supply in certain metals markets, global macroeconomic trends, and the financial community’s appetite for speculative/investment transactions in the commodity markets.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Lower demand for metals produced by Nornickel
  • A slowdown in the global economy in general and in the economies consuming Nornickel metals in particular
  • Supply and demand imbalance in metals markets
  • Replacement of metals produced by the Company with alternative materials
  • Unfavourable monetary policy
Upgrade of the existing and construction of new facilities to ramp up our output of key metals and maintain financial stability
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: external
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

Nornickel is consciously accepting the existing price risk. To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • continuously monitors and forecasts supply and demand dynamics for core metals
  • secures feedstock supplies for key consumers through long‑term contracts to deliver metals in fixed volumes
  • as a member of the Nickel Institute and the International Platinum Group Metals Association, works with other nickel and PGM producers to maintain and expand the demand for these metals
  • searches for new applications and uses for palladium.

Market risk

Lower competitiveness of Nornickel products in the market may result in their lower liquidity, discounts to the market price, and a decrease in Nornickel’s income.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Foreign regulators imposing new foreign trade restrictions that impact the Company’s activities
  • Competition from producers of cheaper nickel
  • More aggressive transport electrification programmes, requirements on metals and their forms
  • Stricter market requirements for product quality and ESG compliance
Upgrade of the existing and construction of new facilities to ramp up our output of key metals and maintain financial stability
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • monitors and analyses changes in market requirements for product quality and forms and for ESG compliance
  • stimulates the demand for its key metals
  • monitors changes in the vehicle fleet mix by engine type and requirements for metals used
  • diversifies its metal product sales across industries and geographies
  • improves and diversifies its product range
  • cooperates with industry institutions to maintain access to relevant sales markets for its metals
  • cooperates with Russian ministries and agencies to prevent/mitigate negative impacts of local or international regulation
  • implements an ESG roadmap
  • seeks partnership opportunities with key producers of cathodes for lithium‑ion batteries
  • fosters strategic partnerships with key representatives of its consuming industries
  • engages in joint projects to drive nickel demand in Russia
  • works on building and enhancing alternative PGM supply/trading platforms.

Financial risks

This group includes FX, interest rate, and liquidity risks as well as other risks related to the financial security of the Company’s operations and investments.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Increased debt financing costs
  • Deteriorating market conditions
  • Sharp rouble exchange rate fluctuations
  • Inability to raise debt financing due to deterioration in financial markets
  • Lack of access to key segments of global financial markets (debt and derivatives), limited access to the foreign currency debt market
  • Unexpected major expenses
  • Counterparty credit risk
  • Foreign regulators imposing restrictions that affect Nornickel’s operations as well as its key business and infrastructure partners
  • A debt portfolio with a well‑balanced profile in terms of maturity, currency composition, and sources of financing
  • Maintaining a strong investment case
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • maintains a balanced debt portfolio
  • raises additional rouble‑denominated debt to prevent a liquidity shortfall
  • holds liquidity reserves on the Group’s balance sheet to ensure timely payments
  • monitors its account balances and existing cash gaps as well as the availability of liquidity reserves on its balance sheet
  • regularly evaluates key potential risk events through scenario modelling and develops prevention and response plans
  • constantly seeks new potential partners among borrowing and financial institutions, expanding and diversifying its financial infrastructure
  • uses different financial models for various purposes, expands the array of financial risk assessment tools (stress testing and reverse stress testing of all financial risks and risk factors considering their combinations, interrelations, and changes over time).

Technical and production risks

Technical, production, or natural phenomena which, once materialised, could have a negative impact on the implementation of the production programme and cause equipment breakdown or result in the need to compensate damage to third parties.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Harsh natural and climatic conditions, including low temperatures, storm winds, and snow load
  • Unscheduled stoppages of core equipment caused by fixed assets’ wear and tear
  • Release of explosive gases and flooding of mines
  • Collapse of buildings or structures
  • Infrastructure breakdowns
Effective delivery of finished products (metals) in line with the production programme
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: decreased

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • ensures proper and safe operation of its assets in line with the requirements of technical documentation as well as technical rules and regulations as prescribed by local laws across Nornickel’s footprint
  • develops ranking criteria and criticality assessment for the Group’s key industrial assets
  • ensures timely replacement of fixed assets to consistently achieve production reliability targets
  • continuously monitors the ongoing condition of Nornickel’s buildings and structures via an information system for conducting geotechnical surveys
  • uses satellite technology to monitor Nornickel’s assets and further analyse the data
  • implements automated systems to control equipment process flows, uses state‑of‑the‑art engineering controls
  • improves its maintenance and repair system
  • trains and educates its employees both locally on‑site and centrally through its corporate training centres
  • systematically identifies, assesses, and monitors technical and production risks, implements a programme of organisational and technical measures to mitigate relevant risks
  • continuously monitors the industrial asset management system
  • ensures risk review by collective bodies at all management levels of the Company
  • develops its technical and production risk management system, including by engaging independent experts to assess the system’s performance and completeness of risk data
  • develops and tests business continuity plans, which outline the steps that need to be taken by Nornickel’s personnel and internal contractors in case of technical and production risks causing maximum damage. These plans ensure that Nornickel resumes its production operations as soon as possible after any disruption
  • engages, on a regular basis, independent surveyors to analyse Nornickel’s exposure to disruptions in the production chain and make assessments of related risks.

Investment project risks

Risk related to time and budget overruns as well as to failure to meet performance targets of Nornickel’s major investment projects.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Changes in forecasts of ore volumes, grades, and properties resulting from follow‑up exploration
  • Changes in investment project timelines
  • Further changes to budgets of investment projects
  • Amendments to project performance targets in the course of implementation
  • Strategic goal: growth driven by Tier 1 assets
  • Developing Nornickel’s mining, concentration, and metallurgical assets
  • Developing the Company’s mineral resource base and upgrading core production processes at Nornickel’s Tier 1 assets
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • carries out accelerated exploration and updates project performance targets and the mining plan (a long‑term production plan) based on the progress of its major investment projects developing the mineral resource base
  • conducts resource, geomechanical, and hydrogeological modelling
  • holds external audits of geological data
  • develops an in‑house geological and mining information system
  • models mining options in geological and mining information systems
  • as part of the project assurance process, conducts internal (cross‑functional) audits of major investment projects at each stage in their life cycle
  • improves incentives to drive project delivery and build skills and capabilities (including staff certification, identification of improvement areas, and provision of tailored training)
  • improves project delivery standards, develops project management tools
  • promotes the use of pilot units across all technically challenging and unique processing stages
  • redesigns projects and substitutes supply routes to source materials/services from friendly countries
  • implements a transformation programme for a research institute to improve the quality and reduce the timelines of R&D projects and survey and engineering activities
  • enhances project management competences of project teams and ensures regular best practice sharing.

Health and safety risks

Failure to comply with Nornickel’s health and safety (H&S) rules may result in threats to health and life or temporary suspension of operations, or cause property damage.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Suboptimal methods of work organisation
  • Process flow disruptions
  • Exposure to hazards
Health and safety
  • Effect on objectives: high
  • Risk source: internal
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

Pursuant to the Occupational Health and Safety Policy approved by the Board of Directors, Nornickel:

  • continuously monitors compliance with H&S requirements
  • improves the working conditions for its employees and contractors deployed at Nornickel’s production facilities, including by implementing new technologies and labour‑saving solutions as well as through enhancing industrial safety at production facilities
  • provides employees with certified state‑of‑the‑art personal protective equipment
  • improves the system of stationary gas analysers, provides employees with portable gas analysers
  • carries out preventive and therapeutic interventions and enforces hygiene protocols to reduce the potential impact of work‑related hazards
  • provides regular training and briefings to employees on health and safety, assesses their health and safety performance, and conducts corporate workshops, including by deploying special simulator units
  • enhances methodological support for H&S functions, including through the development and implementation of corporate standards
  • improves the risk assessment and management framework across Group enterprises as part of the Risk Control project
  • reviews the competencies of line managers across Nornickel’s production enterprises, develops H&S training programmes, and arranges relevant trainings
  • holds H&S competitions
  • communicates the circumstances and causes of accidents to all Nornickel employees, conducts ad hoc safety briefings
  • introduces frameworks to manage technical, technological, organisational, and HR changes.

Compliance risks

The risk of legal liability, significant financial losses, suspension of production, revocation/suspension of a licence, loss of reputation, or other adverse effects arising from Nornickel’s non‑compliance with applicable laws, regulations, instructions, rules, standards, codes of conduct, or from the imposition of sanctions and/or other corrective measures by external supervisory bodies.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Discrepancies in rules and regulations
  • Considerable powers and a high degree of discretion exercised by supervisory bodies
  • Regulatory instability
  • Market practices driven by business customs and specific to the country
Compliance by the Group with applicable laws, regulatory requirements, corporate standards, and business codes
  • Effect on objectives: medium
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • ensures the development and update of key procedural documents on compliance
  • applies best practices to further improve the compliance system
  • takes measures to ensure its compliance with applicable laws
  • protects its interests during regulatory inspections and administrative proceedings
  • ensures that agreements signed by Nornickel contain clauses safeguarding its interests
  • ensures pre‑contractual due diligence of counterparties, partners, and suppliers
  • takes measures to prevent and mitigate compliance risks at the Group
  • consistently keeps employees up to date on the Company’s requirements and measures to mitigate compliance risks
  • ensures that the Corporate Trust Line receives and handles reports of corruption, fraud, embezzlement, or other wrongdoing, either planned or committed
  • maintains and enhances an antitrust compliance system
  • ensures performance evaluation of compliance controls at the Group
  • incorporates compliance metrics in relevant officers’ key performance indicators.

Information security risks

This group includes risks such as potential cybercrimes, a potential unauthorised transfer, modification, or destruction of data assets, disruption or reduced efficiency of Nornickel’s IT services as well as business, technological, or production processes.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Growing external threats
  • Unfair competition
  • Rapid development of Nornickel’s IT infrastructure and automation of technological and business processes
  • Unlawful acts by Nornickel employees and/or third parties
  • Working from home / hybrid work schedule and hiring remote employees outside Nornickel’s regions of operation
Mitigation of the information security risk and risk of cyberattacks on Nornickel’s information systems and automated process control systems
  • Effect on objectives: medium
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • ensures compliance with applicable laws and regulations with respect to the protection of personal data, trade secrets, insider information, and critical information infrastructure
  • implements MMC Norilsk Nickel’s Information Security Policy
  • categorises data assets and makes information security risk assessments
  • embeds and monitors compliance with corporate information security standards within information systems and automated process control systems
  • raises information security awareness among its employees
  • uses technical means to ensure information security of assets and manage access to data assets
  • monitors threats to information security and the use of technical protection means, including vulnerability analysis, penetration testing, cryptographic protection of communication channels, controlled access to removable media, protection against confidential data leaks, and mobile device management
  • develops information security regulations
  • sets up and certifies the Company’s information security management system
  • implements measures to ensure safe remote access.

Environmental risks

This risk group includes events that result in environmental pollution, are not provided for in approved process flows and Russian laws, and affect the achievement of the Company’s environmental goals.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Failure to comply with the requirements of environmental laws when operating the Company’s facilities
  • Poor internal management and control
  • Delay in implementing environmental programmes and measures
  • Natural and climate phenomena
Compliance of business with applicable environmental laws, regulations, corporate standards, and business codes related to environmental protection
  • Effect on objectives: medium
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: decreased

To manage these risks, Nornickel:

  • develops, implements, and improves environmentally sustainable business processes and introduces advanced practices and approaches
  • has in place an incentive system and promotes environmental competencies of its employees
  • implements its Environmental and Climate Change Strategy
  • implements environmental initiatives across the Group
  • oversees environmental compliance and the implementation of environmental programmes and measures.

Social risk

Tensions may escalate among the workforce due to the deterioration of social and economic conditions in Nornickel’s regions of operation.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Headcount / staff composition optimisation projects
  • Rejection of Nornickel’s values by individual employees and/or third parties
  • Limited ability to perform annual wage indexation

Social responsibility:

  • Partnering with regional and local authorities to develop a social infrastructure that supports a safe and comfortable living environment for local communities
  • Effect on objectives: medium
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • strictly adheres to the terms and conditions of collective bargaining agreements between Group companies and employees (the Group has signed a total of 22 collective bargaining agreements)
  • interacts with regional authorities, municipalities, and civil society institutions
  • fulfils its social obligations under public‑private partnership agreements
  • runs corporate social responsibility programmes and the World of New Opportunities charity programme aimed at supporting and promoting regional community initiatives, including by indigenous peoples of Taimyr, and the Plant of Goodness employee volunteering programme
  • Dissemination of false and inaccurate information about Nornickel’s plans and operations among Group employees
  • Reallocation of funds originally intended for social programmes and charity
  • Facilitating the employees’ professional and cultural development and building up talent pools across Nornickel’s regions of operation
  • Running wide‑ranging charity programmes and projects
  • implements infrastructure projects to support the accelerated development of the service economy and improved living standards across Nornickel’s regions of operation through the Norilsk Development Agency, the Second School centre for community initiatives in the Pechengsky District, and the Monchegorsk Development Agency
  • carries out regular sociological monitoring across its operations
  • surveys Norilsk residents on living standards, employment, migration trends, and general social sentiment to identify major issues
  • runs social projects and programmes aimed at supporting employees and their families as well as Nornickel’s former employees
  • maintains dialogues with stakeholders and conducts stakeholder questionnaire surveys when preparing the Group’s public sustainability reports
  • provides a range of social support measures to redundant staff under the Kola operations’ social programmes and designs the Social and Economic Development Strategy of the Pechengsky District.

Supply chain risks

Supply chain interruption/disruption within the existing transport and logistics system.

Key risk factors Effect on Nornickel’s development goals and strategy Risk assessment Key mitigants
  • Challenging natural and climatic conditions in the regions of operation
  • Limitations of the transport and logistics system
  • Growing inflation, FX rates, pricing pressure from suppliers, poor planning, and other factors
  • Breach of contracts by contractors
  • Foreign regulators imposing restrictions that affect Nornickel’s operations and its key business partners
  • Effective delivery of finished products in line with the production programme
  • Timely supply of products to consumers
  • Effect on objectives: medium
  • Risk source: mixed
  • Year‑on‑year change in risk: stable

To manage this risk, Nornickel:

  • actively engages Russian manufacturers to expand competition
  • uses long‑term agreements / contracts / price lists with fixed optimal prices for materials, equipment, and spare parts on terms that are most beneficial for the Company
  • drafts lists of critical manufacturers of equipment and materials, works to prevent supply disruptions, and monitors the suppliers’ performance
  • implements its Logistics Infrastructure Development Programme
  • implements its Procurement Performance Enhancement Programme.